🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Vitesse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 1.94 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against De Graafschap attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 30% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 47%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights