Vitesse 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as Vitesse welcome De Graafschap to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Thursday 4 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Vitesse are significantly better at GelreDome than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vitesse, 1 for De Graafschap and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 61% and De Graafschap 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 68% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.972 / defence 1.111 | De Graafschap attack 1.217 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.433. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Vitesse games / 55 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 30% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 47%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.13. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 30% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Vitesse 1.53 / De Graafschap 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.972 / def 1.111 | De Graafschap attack 1.217 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.94
De Graafschap xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs De Graafschap kick off?
Vitesse vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 4 December 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Vitesse 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Vitesse vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs De Graafschap part of?
Vitesse vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 30% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Vitesse and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Vitesse and De Graafschap in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
30%
3.29
22%
4.48
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.47
1.94
De Graafschap xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
4%
22.81
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Vitesse and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.94 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 15D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 26W 12D 16L from 54 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 7W 8D 11L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or De Graafschap away?
Vitesse's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.38 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
0
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, De Graafschap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 62%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Vitesse and 58% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vitesse's games and 65% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Vitesse's matches and 58% of De Graafschap's.
Do Vitesse and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 1.94 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against De Graafschap attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 30% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 47%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.