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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Telstar 1-3 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.19 xG and Excelsior 0.86 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.36 / defence 0.71 against Excelsior attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 67% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 13%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 55%, Excelsior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.14 PPG, Excelsior 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights