Telstar 1-3 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Excelsior travel to 711 Stadion to take on Telstar. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at 711 Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 711 Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Telstar are significantly better at 711 Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Telstar) versus 1.30 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Telstar, 2 for Excelsior and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 55% versus Excelsior 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 55% | Excelsior 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.19 xG and Excelsior 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.358 / defence 0.714 | Excelsior attack 0.972 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.246. Telstar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Telstar games / 26 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 67% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 13%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Excelsior 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Telstar 30% | Excelsior 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 67% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Telstar 2.19 / Excelsior 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.358 / def 0.714 | Excelsior attack 0.972 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Telstar (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Excelsior xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Excelsior kick off?
Telstar vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Excelsior?
Telstar 1 - 3 Excelsior.
Where is Telstar vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Excelsior part of?
Telstar vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 67% chance of winning, Excelsior a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Telstar and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are Telstar and Excelsior in?
Telstar (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Telstar's attack rating (1.36) and Excelsior's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.15
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.05
0.86
Excelsior xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
11%
8.93
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
1%
67.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Telstar and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Telstar and 0.86 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Telstar's recent record stands at 19W 16D 29L from 64 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 24L across 64 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.14 PPG, Excelsior on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 13W 10D 8L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Telstar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Excelsior's away record stands at 6W 9D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Telstar are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.72 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 19W 16D 29L in their last 64 games (1.14 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Excelsior away?
Telstar's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.58 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Telstar and Excelsior runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Excelsior won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Excelsior 2-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 58%, Excelsior 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Telstar and 77% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Telstar's games and 64% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Telstar's matches and 77% of Excelsior's.
Do Telstar and Excelsior tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Telstar 1-3 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.19 xG and Excelsior 0.86 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.36 / defence 0.71 against Excelsior attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 67% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 13%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 55%, Excelsior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.14 PPG, Excelsior 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.