🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Roda and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Round of 16, as Roda and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.39 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Waalwijk attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Waalwijk 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.42 PPG, Waalwijk 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights