Roda 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Waalwijk travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda in Eerste Divisie (Round of 16). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Roda — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Roda at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Roda have won 1, Waalwijk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2026, ended Roda 2–1 Waalwijk — a Roda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 34%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Waalwijk 69%). Note also that Waalwijk surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 34% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.39 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.755 / defence 1.075 | Waalwijk attack 1.176 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Roda's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Data: built from Roda's last 76 games and Waalwijk's last 38.
Result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.34 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.12. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 50% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Round of 16 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Roda 1.39 / Waalwijk 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.755 / def 1.075 | Waalwijk attack 1.176 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does Roda vs Waalwijk kick off?
Roda vs Waalwijk kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Roda 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Roda vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Waalwijk part of?
Roda vs Waalwijk is a Eerste Divisie fixture (Round of 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Roda and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Roda vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 76 games and Waalwijk's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.34
23%
4.35
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Roda xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
Waalwijk xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
5%
20.15
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Roda and 1.80 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Roda have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 27W 21D 24L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 22W 17D 33L from 72 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.42 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 36 home games (13W 11D 12L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 8W 10D 18L from their last 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.60 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 68%.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
Roda (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Roda vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 21D 24L in their last 72 games (1.42 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 22W 17D 33L in their last 72 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Waalwijk away?
Roda's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.39 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won Roda 1-4 Waalwijk.
Roda's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Roda
2
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Roda 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Waalwijk?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 47%, Waalwijk 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Roda) and 69% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and Waalwijk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Roda's games and 72% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Roda's matches and 69% of Waalwijk's.
Do Roda and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Roda's recent matches and 86% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Round of 16, as Roda and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.39 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Waalwijk attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Waalwijk 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.42 PPG, Waalwijk 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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