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Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Roda 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.36 xG and Vitesse 1.67 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Vitesse attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 31% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 44%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 59%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitesse's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.39 PPG, Vitesse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights