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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Roda 0-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.08 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.88 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.21 / defence 1.32, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 43% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 35%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 61%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.42 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights