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Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out De Graafschap 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat De Graafschap 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.29 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

De Graafschap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.33 PPG, De Graafschap 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights