Roda 1-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 44%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 4W 3D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Roda's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Roda have won 3, De Graafschap 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus De Graafschap 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | De Graafschap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.892 / defence 0.981 | De Graafschap attack 1.044 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.265. Data: 39 Roda games / 39 De Graafschap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Roda 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.892 / def 0.981 | De Graafschap attack 1.044 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.29
De Graafschap xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Roda 1 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 44% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.89) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.06
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Roda xG
Total xG
2.88
1.29
De Graafschap xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Roda and 1.29 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 14W 10D 15L from 39 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 11L across 39 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.33 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 9W 5D 5L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.82 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
Roda's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.68 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 42%, De Graafschap 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Roda) and 58% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Roda have failed to score in 26% of games; De Graafschap in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Roda's recent matches and 63% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Roda's recent games and 58% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out De Graafschap 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat De Graafschap 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.29 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.33 PPG, De Graafschap 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.