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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-5 hammering of MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat MVV 0-5 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.65 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. MVV fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.65 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 70/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 36% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Willem II's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.10 PPG, Willem II 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights