🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

MVV and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.10 xG and Almere City FC 1.78 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. MVV fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Almere City FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 62%, Almere City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.05 PPG, Almere City FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights