🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Jong Utrecht and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 27, as Jong Utrecht and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.00 xG and Willem II 1.72 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.25 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Willem II 33%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 62%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.87 PPG, Willem II 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights