🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.93 xG and De Graafschap 1.43 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against De Graafschap attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 27%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 77%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights