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Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.67 xG and De Graafschap 1.65 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.04 / defence 1.57 against De Graafschap attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights