Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 38%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at PSV Campus De Herdgang this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. De Graafschap are 0.70 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, De Graafschap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, De Graafschap have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Jong PSV U21's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and De Graafschap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.67 xG and De Graafschap 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.038 / defence 1.575 | De Graafschap attack 0.799 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.308. Data: 64 Jong PSV U21 games / 65 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 100% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.67 / De Graafschap 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.038 / def 1.575 | De Graafschap attack 0.799 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.65
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 38% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 5W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.04) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.80x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.57x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
38%
2.61
24%
4.14
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.31
1.65
De Graafschap xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.65 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 17W 10D 37L from 64 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 21L across 64 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 8W 6D 18L from 32 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 9D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.83 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 37L in their last 64 games (0.95 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 30W 13D 21L in their last 64 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.94 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: De Graafschap have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
8
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, De Graafschap have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Jong PSV U21, 66% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Jong PSV U21 and 66% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Jong PSV U21's games and 66% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 66% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.67 xG and De Graafschap 1.65 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.04 / defence 1.57 against De Graafschap attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, De Graafschap 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.