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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.20 xG and Almere City FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Almere City FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 24%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 77%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG, Almere City FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights