🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Almere City FC make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.

Almere City FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Almere City FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almere City FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Jong PSV U21, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Almere City FC — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with Jong PSV U21 winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong PSV U21 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 70% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 77% | Almere City FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.20 xG and Almere City FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.087 / defence 1.069 | Almere City FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.444. Data: 57 Jong PSV U21 games / 19 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Jong PSV U21 dominate the H2H record, yet Almere City FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights