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Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.06 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Waalwijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 18%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 68%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights