Jong AZ 2-3 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as Jong AZ welcome Waalwijk to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Waalwijk haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Waalwijk trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 71% and Waalwijk 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 68% | Waalwijk 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.06 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.966 / defence 1.005 | Waalwijk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.858 / away 1.221. Data: 38 Jong AZ games / 0 Waalwijk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 18%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Waalwijk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 11 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong AZ 2.06 / Waalwijk 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.966 / def 1.005 | Waalwijk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.858 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Waalwijk xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Waalwijk kick off?
Jong AZ vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 11 August 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 Waalwijk.
Where is Jong AZ vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Waalwijk part of?
Jong AZ vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 61% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong AZ and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Waalwijk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.97x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.83
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.11
1.04
Waalwijk xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
2%
42.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.04 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 12W 9D 13L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. Jong AZ haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Waalwijk's form line: 6W 7D 21L from 34 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. Waalwijk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 1W 4D 12L from 17 away games — 0.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.29 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Pre-Season
Waalwijk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 6W 7D 21L in their last 34 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Waalwijk away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.06 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 0, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Waalwijk 2-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong AZ at 76%, Waalwijk at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong AZ and 65% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Jong AZ's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong AZ's matches and 65% of Waalwijk's.
Do Jong AZ and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.06 xG and Waalwijk 1.04 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Waalwijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 61% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 18%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 68%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.