Jong AZ 3-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 3 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Jong AZ (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong AZ have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Jong AZ, 1.40 for VVV Venlo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Jong AZ, who have won 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against VVV Venlo — VVV Venlo have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2024, ended Jong AZ 1–0 VVV Venlo — a Jong AZ win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Jong AZ and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 69% and VVV Venlo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 69% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.87 xG and VVV Venlo 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.118 / defence 1.278 | VVV Venlo attack 1.124 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.295. Jong AZ's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VVV Venlo's projected output up. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 61 games and VVV Venlo's last 61.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.57 | Draw 4.44 | VVV Venlo 2.59. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 39% to win, with the draw at 23%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Jong AZ 39% and VVV Venlo 39%, with the draw at 23%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 90% (last 10 home games) | VVV Venlo 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 3 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Jong AZ 1.87 / VVV Venlo 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.118 / def 1.278 | VVV Venlo attack 1.124 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Jong AZ and VVV Venlo level at 39% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.86
VVV Venlo xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 3 February 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Jong AZ 3 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 39% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong AZ and VVV Venlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.12) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (1.12x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 61 games and VVV Venlo's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
39%
2.57
23%
4.44
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.73
1.86
VVV Venlo xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.50
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.86 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 13D 25L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.20 PPG from 61 outings (20W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.20 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.28 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong AZ (Home) vs VVV Venlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 20W 13D 28L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.67 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won Jong AZ 3-0 VVV Venlo on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jong AZ
2
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 7, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and VVV Venlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 67%, VVV Venlo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong AZ and 63% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and VVV Venlo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jong AZ's games and 53% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong AZ's matches and 63% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Jong AZ and VVV Venlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 87% of VVV Venlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 3-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.87 xG and VVV Venlo 1.86 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against VVV Venlo attack 1.12 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 39%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 69%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.34 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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