FC OSS 1-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC OSS at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as FC OSS welcome Helmond Sport to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC OSS have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Helmond Sport trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 42% versus Helmond Sport 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Helmond Sport 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.44 xG and Helmond Sport 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.715 / defence 1.074 | Helmond Sport attack 0.895 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.297. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 FC OSS games / 60 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Helmond Sport 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 50% | Helmond Sport 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG FC OSS 1.44 / Helmond Sport 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.715 / def 1.074 | Helmond Sport attack 0.895 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Helmond Sport xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
FC OSS 1 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 41% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC OSS and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
Record (7 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 3 | Helmond Sport 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.71x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.74
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.69
1.25
Helmond Sport xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.25 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 16W 11D 33L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 24W 13D 23L from 60 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Helmond Sport are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (12W 4D 14L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 9W 5D 16L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.40 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 11D 33L in their last 60 games (0.98 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 24W 13D 23L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC OSS's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.33 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
5
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, Helmond Sport 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC OSS) and 67% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 30% of games; Helmond Sport in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC OSS's recent matches and 57% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC OSS and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as FC OSS and Helmond Sport drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.44 xG and Helmond Sport 1.25 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against Helmond Sport attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 41% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 32%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Helmond Sport 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.