ADO Den Haag 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Bingoal Stadion to face ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bingoal Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.70 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours ADO Den Haag, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against FC Eindhoven — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 4–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The historical record gives ADO Den Haag a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 69% versus FC Eindhoven 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 67% | FC Eindhoven 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.73 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.008 / defence 0.865 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.362 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.287. FC Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 ADO Den Haag games / 61 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 34%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ADO Den Haag 50% | FC Eindhoven 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.73 / FC Eindhoven 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.008 / def 0.865 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.362 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Eindhoven xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven part of?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 43% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven?
Record (7 meetings): ADO Den Haag 4W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.36x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.22
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.25
1.52
FC Eindhoven xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
6%
16.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.52 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 26W 19D 16L from 61 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 22L across 61 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.23 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 14W 10D 7L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 11W 10D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.31 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 26W 19D 16L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 18W 21D 22L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or FC Eindhoven away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.68 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 1 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 7, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when ADO Den Haag 4-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 68%, FC Eindhoven 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for ADO Den Haag and 58% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ADO Den Haag's games and 55% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 58% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.73 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.36 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 67%, FC Eindhoven 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.59 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.