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Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Roda 2-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.07 xG and Roda 2.37 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Roda attack 1.26 / defence 0.80, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 16% | Draw 18% | Roda 66%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 69%, Roda 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Roda's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.19 PPG, Roda 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights