🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 finished level at 2-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.27 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.24 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 60% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights