Jong AZ 2-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong AZ at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Jong AZ are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 2 for Jong PSV U21 and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 69% and Jong PSV U21 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.27 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.171 / defence 1.178 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.820 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.282. Data: 70 Jong AZ games / 70 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 60% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 19%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Jong PSV U21 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 90% | Jong PSV U21 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 60% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong AZ 2.27 / Jong PSV U21 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.171 / def 1.178 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.820 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jong PSV U21 xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 7 April 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong AZ 2 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 60% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 3W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.96
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.51
1.24
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.71
2%
49.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.24 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 27W 16D 27L from 70 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 41L across 70 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 17W 6D 11L from 34 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 9W 5D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.54 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 69%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 27W 16D 27L in their last 70 games (1.39 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 12D 41L in their last 70 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.68 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong AZ
3
Draws
4
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 68%, Jong PSV U21 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Jong AZ and 68% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong AZ's games and 56% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Jong AZ's matches and 68% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 finished level at 2-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.27 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.24 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 60% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.