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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax beat Jong AZ 1-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong Ajax 1.60 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Jong Ajax attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 37%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 68%, Jong Ajax 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights