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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.40 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.91 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 2.4 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.62 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 70% | Draw 17% | FC Eindhoven 12%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 69%, FC Eindhoven 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.29 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights