Jong AZ 0-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Jong AZ's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC Eindhoven's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jong AZ, 3 for FC Eindhoven and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 4–2 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 65% versus FC Eindhoven 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 69% | FC Eindhoven 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.40 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.076 / defence 1.031 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.618 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.771 / away 1.422. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Jong AZ games / 51 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 70% | Draw 17% | FC Eindhoven 12%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | FC Eindhoven 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
FC Eindhoven lead the H2H ledger, but Jong AZ carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Jong AZ 40% | FC Eindhoven 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 70% | Draw 17% | FC Eindhoven 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong AZ 2.40 / FC Eindhoven 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.076 / def 1.031 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.618 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.771 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Eindhoven xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong AZ 0 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 70% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
Record (7 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.62x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.83
12%
8.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.31
0.91
FC Eindhoven xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
8.08
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
1%
89.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.91 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 12D 21L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 17W 11D 23L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.22 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 10W 5D 10L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.31 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
3
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Jong AZ 0-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 68%, FC Eindhoven 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong AZ and 56% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 32%; FC Eindhoven in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 40% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong AZ's matches and 56% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.40 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.91 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 2.4 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.62 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 70% | Draw 17% | FC Eindhoven 12%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 69%, FC Eindhoven 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.29 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.