Jong AZ vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Emmen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Emmen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Emmen hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Emmen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Emmen have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 60% versus Emmen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 69% | Emmen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.90 xG and Emmen 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.773 / defence 0.963 | Emmen attack 1.100 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Jong AZ games / 42 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 41% | Draw 22% | Emmen 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 41% | Draw 22% | Emmen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Jong AZ 1.90 / Emmen 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.773 / def 0.963 | Emmen attack 1.100 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Emmen xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Emmen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Emmen part of?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 41% chance of winning, Emmen a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Jong AZ and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Record (9 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 2 | Emmen 5W.
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.77x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.10x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.63
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.70
1.80
Emmen xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.80 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 4D 24L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.29 PPG from 42 outings (15W 9D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.29 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 5W 2D 14L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.62 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 24L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Emmen have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.81 PPG; Emmen away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 48%, Emmen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Jong AZ and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 57% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jong AZ's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do Jong AZ and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Emmen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.