Den Bosch vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 58%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host FC Volendam at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 4D 3L at De Vliert — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Volendam — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 3 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 78% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 70% | FC Volendam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.40 xG and FC Volendam 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.139 / defence 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 0.776 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 58% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 23%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 58% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Den Bosch 2.40 / FC Volendam 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.139 / def 1.108 | FC Volendam attack 0.776 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FC Volendam xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 58% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
58%
1.72
19%
5.23
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.86
1.46
FC Volendam xG
1.72
58%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
9%
10.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
2%
48.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.46 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.20 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 7W 6D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (3W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Volendam away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.35 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 80%, FC Volendam 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Den Bosch) and 55% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Den Bosch's games and 45% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 55% of FC Volendam's.
Do Den Bosch and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.