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Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.73 xG and Emmen 1.54 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Emmen attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 42% | Draw 24% | Emmen 34%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.20 PPG, Emmen 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights