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De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 1-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.77 xG and De Graafschap 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 66%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.27 PPG, De Graafschap 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights