Jong AZ 1-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.40 PPG versus De Graafschap's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
De Graafschap have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Jong AZ's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–5 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 66% and De Graafschap 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 66% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.77 xG and De Graafschap 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.089 / defence 0.980 | De Graafschap attack 0.881 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.293. Data: 44 Jong AZ games / 43 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 4.17. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 22 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong AZ 1.77 / De Graafschap 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.089 / def 0.980 | De Graafschap attack 0.881 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.12
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 September 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Jong AZ 1 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 53% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.27
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.88
1.12
De Graafschap xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.12 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 15W 11D 18L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 19W 10D 15L from 44 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.27 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.70 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 10D 15L in their last 44 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.14 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong AZ at 71%, De Graafschap at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong AZ and 57% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jong AZ's games and 62% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong AZ's matches and 57% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 1-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.77 xG and De Graafschap 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 66%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.27 PPG, De Graafschap 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.