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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

De Graafschap away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.40 PPG versus De Graafschap's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–5 with De Graafschap winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Jong AZ in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

De Graafschap in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 66% and De Graafschap 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 66% | De Graafschap 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.77 xG and De Graafschap 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.089 / defence 0.980 | De Graafschap attack 0.881 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.293. Data: 44 Jong AZ games / 43 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 4.17. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.

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