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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Mon 22 Sep 2025

19:00

Venue

AFAS Trainingscomplex

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jong AZ Win

53%

Jong AZ

1.90

23%

Draw

4.27

24%

De Graafschap

4.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.9%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.77

Jong AZ xG

Total xG

2.88

1.12

De Graafschap xG

53%
23%
24%
Jong AZDrawDe Graafschap

1.90

53%

Home win

4.27

23%

Draw

4.18

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

33%

Jong AZ

3.05

17%

De Graafschap

5.86

Win to Nil

17%

Jong AZ

5.80

4%

De Graafschap

24.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 6.2 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 9.9 11.0 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.1
2 8.7 9.8 5.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 5.1 5.7 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.768
λ Away (xG) 1.116
Total xG 2.884
League avg home goals 1.710
League avg away goals 1.293
Jong AZ attack strength 1.089
Jong AZ defence strength 0.980
De Graafschap attack strength 0.881
De Graafschap defence strength 0.949
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 43