Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Sportcomplex De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jong Ajax have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Willem II have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) — Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Jong Ajax, 3 for Willem II and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Jong Ajax 0–1 Willem II — a Willem II win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 51% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 54% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.804 / defence 1.040 | Willem II attack 0.940 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.553. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 61 games and Willem II's last 23.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.05 | Draw 3.59 | Willem II 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 60% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 25 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Jong Ajax 1.37 / Willem II 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.804 / def 1.040 | Willem II attack 0.940 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Willem II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Jong Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 2 February 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Jong Ajax 2 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 33% chance of winning, Willem II a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong Ajax and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (0.80) and Willem II's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.94x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from Jong Ajax's last 61 games and Willem II's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.59
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.89
1.52
Willem II xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.52 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 16D 33L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.08 PPG from 61 outings (17W 15D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.08 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Ajax's home form reads 8W 11D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.18 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
Jong Ajax (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 12W 16D 33L in their last 61 games (0.85 PPG), while Willem II have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.13 PPG; Willem II away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Ajax have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 42%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jong Ajax) and 48% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Ajax and Willem II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 61% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Ajax and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 48% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 84% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Willem II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Willem II 2-1 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.52 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 39%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 54%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.85 PPG, Willem II 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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