Jong Ajax 0-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Ajax face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong Utrecht travel to Sportcomplex De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong Ajax at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Jong Utrecht have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Jong Utrecht away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Ajax 1.30 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Jong Ajax's games and 60% of Jong Utrecht's (from Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Jong Ajax have won 4, Jong Utrecht 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2025, ended Jong Ajax 3–4 Jong Utrecht — a Jong Utrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jong Ajax trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 52% versus Jong Utrecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 56% | Jong Utrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.51 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.976 / defence 1.103 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.750 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 75 games and Jong Utrecht's last 75.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.26 | Draw 3.93 | Jong Utrecht 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 38 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Jong Ajax 1.51 / Jong Utrecht 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.976 / def 1.103 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.750 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht?
Jong Ajax 0 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 38) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 44% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (0.98) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Ajax's last 75 games and Jong Utrecht's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.93
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.71
1.20
Jong Utrecht xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
7%
14.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.20 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 18W 17D 40L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 15W 21D 39L from 75 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 37 home games (11W 11D 15L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 10D 23L from their last 37 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.16 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Jong Ajax (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 18W 17D 40L in their last 75 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 21D 39L in their last 75 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.19 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2026, when Jong Utrecht won Jong Utrecht 6-1 Jong Ajax.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
5
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Ajax have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Jong Utrecht 6-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 49%, Jong Utrecht 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Jong Ajax) and 57% (Jong Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax have failed to score in 38% of games; Jong Utrecht in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 57% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 57% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 76% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.51 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.75 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 30%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 56%, Jong Utrecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 38
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →