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Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax beat Jong AZ 4-1 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Jong AZ attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 38% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 37%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 46%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights