Jong Ajax 4-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 38%, yet in-form Jong AZ provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Jong AZ travel to Sportcomplex De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Monday 18 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Ajax at Sportcomplex De Toekomst this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportcomplex De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Jong AZ's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Jong AZ have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Jong Ajax.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Jong AZ winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jong AZ have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 38% versus Jong AZ 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 46% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.877 / defence 0.930 | Jong AZ attack 1.174 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.275. Data: 39 Jong Ajax games / 39 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 38% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Jong AZ 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 40% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 18 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 38% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong Ajax 1.43 / Jong AZ 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.877 / def 0.930 | Jong AZ attack 1.174 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 August 2025 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Jong Ajax 4 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 38% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong Ajax and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 5W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (0.88) and Jong AZ's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.97
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.82
1.39
Jong AZ xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.39 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax come into this having played 39 games, going 9W 9D 21L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.33 PPG from 39 outings (14W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Ajax's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.82 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.26 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Ajax have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 32%, Jong AZ 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Jong Ajax) and 63% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jong AZ in 32%; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 58% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 63% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Jong AZ 4-1 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Jong AZ attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 38% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 37%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 46%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.