🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Jong Ajax 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and Cambuur 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 47%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 56%, Cambuur 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights