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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Helmond Sport and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Helmond Sport and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.31 xG and Waalwijk 1.69 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Waalwijk attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 47%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 62%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights