Helmond Sport vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees FC OSS travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 January 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 5D 2L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 0.80 PPG, FC OSS 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS 4, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 1–3 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC OSS trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 59% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 55% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.73 xG and FC OSS 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.966 / defence 0.967 | FC OSS attack 0.682 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Helmond Sport games / 49 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 55% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 55% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Helmond Sport 1.73 / FC OSS 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.966 / def 0.967 | FC OSS attack 0.682 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC OSS xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 55% chance of winning, FC OSS a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): Helmond Sport 2W | Draws 4 | FC OSS 4W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.97) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.22
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.70
0.96
FC OSS xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
27.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 0.96 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 12D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.14 PPG from 49 outings (15W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.98 PPG, FC OSS on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 10W 8D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.43 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC OSS away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.52 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
4
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 72%, FC OSS at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Helmond Sport) and 44% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Helmond Sport's games and 60% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 44% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and FC OSS tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.