Poisson rates De Graafschap at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.30 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for De Graafschap, 3 for FC Eindhoven and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Table Context
The standings have De Graafschap (4th, 63 pts) 7 places above FC Eindhoven (11th, 47 pts) — a 16-point gap in Eerste Divisie.
At home this season, De Graafschap have gone 10W 3D 6L. FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 2D 12L on their travels. De Graafschap: Promotion Playoffs.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and FC Eindhoven 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | FC Eindhoven 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.136 / defence 0.989 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.871 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.422. Data: 38 De Graafschap games / 38 FC Eindhoven games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 21%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 4.76. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | FC Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Manager edge: FC Eindhoven led by M. Verberne • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 3W • Goals trend: 2.60 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 16 – 10 FC Eindhoven • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: De Graafschap 50% / Draw 20% / FC Eindhoven 30% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — De Graafschap favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 58% • Goals: H2H average 2.60/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.34 (65% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 62% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D • FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W • De Graafschap home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • FC Eindhoven away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (De Graafschap 1.50 PPG vs FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson xG of 2.12 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (FC Eindhoven): Poisson xG of 1.23 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.34 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates De Graafschap 7/10, FC Eindhoven 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 62% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG De Graafschap 2.12 / FC Eindhoven 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.136 / def 0.989 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.871 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Eindhoven xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 58% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
• Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 3W • Goals trend: 2.60 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 16 – 10 FC Eindhoven • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: De Graafschap 50% / Draw 20% / FC Eindhoven 30% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — De Graafschap favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 58% • Goals: H2H average 2.60/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.34 (65% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 62% — no strong aligned signal
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D • FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W • De Graafschap home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • FC Eindhoven away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (De Graafschap 1.50 PPG vs FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson xG of 2.12 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (FC Eindhoven): Poisson xG of 1.23 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.34 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates De Graafschap 7/10, FC Eindhoven 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 62% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture