Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 45%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht meet at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dordrecht arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Dordrecht and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 4–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Dordrecht 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 70% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.07 xG and Dordrecht 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.989 / defence 1.227 | Dordrecht attack 1.061 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.317. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Jong PSV U21 games / 64 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 45% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 31%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.23. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 45% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.07 / Dordrecht 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.989 / def 1.227 | Dordrecht attack 1.061 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Dordrecht xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 45% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.99) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.06x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.26
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.78
1.72
Dordrecht xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
4%
25.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.72 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 18W 16D 30L from 64 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 26L across 64 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.22 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 10W 7D 14L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 9D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.41 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 18W 16D 30L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 20W 18D 26L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.19 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 1-4 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Jong PSV U21, 68% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Jong PSV U21 and 55% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong PSV U21's games and 68% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 55% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong PSV U21 0-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.07 xG and Dordrecht 1.72 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Dordrecht attack 1.06 / defence 1.27, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 45% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 31%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.09 PPG, Dordrecht 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.