🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.52 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.97 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.41 / defence 0.84 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 71% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 12%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights