FC Volendam 4-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Jong PSV U21.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 9W 0D 1L at Kras Stadion — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kras Stadion.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Volendam are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 2.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 2, Jong PSV U21 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 4–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and Jong PSV U21 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 71% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.52 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.411 / defence 0.841 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.887 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.302. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 2.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 FC Volendam games / 69 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 12%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Jong PSV U21 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Volendam 2.52 / Jong PSV U21 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.411 / def 0.841 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.887 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Jong PSV U21 xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
FC Volendam 4 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 71% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.41) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.83
12%
8.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.49
0.97
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
8.26
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
8%
12.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
1%
102.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.97 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 66 games, going 26W 11D 29L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 0.86 PPG from 66 outings (15W 12D 39L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 16W 2D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (9W 5D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.58 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 70%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 26W 11D 29L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 12D 39L in their last 66 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 52%, Jong PSV U21 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC Volendam and 67% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 58% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Volendam's matches and 67% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.52 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.97 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.41 / defence 0.84 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 71% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 12%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.