FC OSS 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Dordrecht have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC OSS against 1.10 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC OSS 1W, Dordrecht 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 51% versus Dordrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 63% | Dordrecht 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.92 xG and Dordrecht 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.011 / defence 1.190 | Dordrecht attack 1.040 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.318. Data: 43 FC OSS games / 43 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 45% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 33%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 3.03. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 50% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 45% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG FC OSS 1.92 / Dordrecht 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.011 / def 1.190 | Dordrecht attack 1.040 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Dordrecht xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
FC OSS 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Dordrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 45% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC OSS and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Record (4 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.04x) against FC OSS's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
45%
2.22
22%
4.57
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.55
1.63
Dordrecht xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
5%
20.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.63 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 11W 8D 24L from 43 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 22L across 43 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for FC OSS against 0.95 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 7W 3D 11L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.21 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 24L in their last 43 games (0.95 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 10W 11D 22L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Dordrecht away?
FC OSS's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Dordrecht have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 52%, Dordrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC OSS and 57% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC OSS's games and 62% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC OSS's matches and 57% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC OSS and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat FC OSS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC OSS 0-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.92 xG and Dordrecht 1.63 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Dordrecht attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 45% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 33%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 63%, Dordrecht 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, Dordrecht 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.