Dordrecht 3-3 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong Utrecht at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 10L across 10 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Dordrecht) versus 1.10 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Dordrecht: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Jong Utrecht, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dordrecht and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus Jong Utrecht 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Jong Utrecht 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.95 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.976 / defence 1.101 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.758 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Dordrecht games / 42 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Utrecht 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dordrecht 50% | Jong Utrecht 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Dordrecht 1.95 / Jong Utrecht 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.976 / def 1.101 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.758 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Jong Utrecht xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Dordrecht 3 - 3 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 58% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 3W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
58%
1.74
22%
4.59
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.04
1.08
Jong Utrecht xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
3%
34.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.08 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 10W 10D 22L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 9W 7D 26L from 42 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 17L from 21 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.86 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 9W 7D 26L in their last 42 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.14 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 48%, Jong Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dordrecht and 62% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; Jong Utrecht in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 52% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.95 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.08 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 21%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Jong Utrecht 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.