De Graafschap 2-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 5). Kick-off is Monday 18 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
De Graafschap's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.30 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Helmond Sport, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2023, ended De Graafschap 2–0 Helmond Sport — a De Graafschap win.
The head-to-head data gives De Graafschap an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 54% versus Helmond Sport 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 58% | Helmond Sport 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.49 xG and Helmond Sport 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.779 / defence 0.814 | Helmond Sport attack 0.907 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.318. De Graafschap's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.49. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 43 games and Helmond Sport's last 43.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.03 | Draw 3.83 | Helmond Sport 4.06. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (De Graafschap 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 20% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG De Graafschap 1.49 / Helmond Sport 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.779 / def 0.814 | Helmond Sport attack 0.907 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Helmond Sport xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 18 September 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 5) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 49% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.78) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 43 games and Helmond Sport's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.83
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.46
0.97
Helmond Sport xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.97 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 17W 8D 18L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Helmond Sport's form line: 13W 11D 19L from 43 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.37 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 3D 8L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 4W 6D 11L from their last 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.05 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 8D 18L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.57 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.86 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won Helmond Sport 0-4 De Graafschap.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 38%, Helmond Sport 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (De Graafschap) and 43% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 29% of games; Helmond Sport in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 43% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of De Graafschap's recent games and 43% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 67% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Helmond Sport 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.49 xG and Helmond Sport 0.97 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.78 / defence 0.81 against Helmond Sport attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 49% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 25%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, Helmond Sport 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.37 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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