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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.18 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 57% | Draw 22% | Jong Ajax 21%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 61%, Jong Ajax 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.27 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights